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Tampa Area... Hurricane info Needed!!!

bonedog

bonedog

SM 2004
Full Member
Joined
Aug 1, 2003
Messages
3,056
Location
bloomfield,NJ
Guys as some of you know I have a beach house in Venice... I sit about 12feet above the water. What warnings or evac orders are being issued?? Being I am in Jersey I am really worried here.. seems all my neighbors are away and I need to know what up. If I need to I will hop a flight and secure my property.

I have hurricane film on all exterior windows but It is rated only to 110mph... think this will be enough??? I have delt with hurricanes before at the shore house in NJ but we never were hit with anything major... I think my luck has run out with Charlie and just want to cover my butt.

Any info would be greatly appreciated!!

Jude
 
You can check the national hurricane center site...www.nhc.noaa.gov I believe..I personally don't know where Venice is...hope this helps
 
Hopping a flight is out of the question unless you're going to do it tonight. So far here in Pinellas County (a little north of you, and where the current path has it making landfall) they have called for an evac of all the mobile home parks. This is pretty typical. They're the first to go. Other than that not much else yet. No beach evacs yet. The bad thing for you, of cousre, is if it hits here then the storm surge is going to be bad in the Venice area. That means lots of flooding.
 
Kodio, won't the surge be hitting at low tide? I thought I heard something like that. At least that would help a bit. Fingers crossed for ya
 
Jude -

surge is expected to hit at HIGH tide....that sucks....

you should be ok at 12 feet as long as it's less than a Cat 3

edit - Bonedog - do you want me to run up there and check on the place?? I could probably go up Saturday morning....it's about 60 miles north of here
 
Kodio...I thought I heard on news that as of 7AM some of the islands were "exit only" and that vol evacs were in force. Is that more south closer to Sarasota?
 
You know, I am so sick of these news casters hyping up storms. They over do everything and make people so afraid and scared.
It seems like every time Home Depots stock goes down, they pay Florida?s news centers to hype a storm or two to get sales up... LoL

I have lived here my whole life and there have only been like 2 or 3 hurricanes that have actually done what the weather guys have said they would... You can not predict Mother Nature, especially when she has PMS!!! LoL






Personal Terms Of Service Disclaimer: Lord Aries is NOT a weather man and has never been to Weather Man School. Lord Aries does not actually know if Home Depot pays Florida to help there sales, it was meant as a joke. Lord Aries is not making fun of women and thinks that PMS is a very serious thing and would never tease a woman about it. Lord Aries feels bad that women have to go through such pain every month. Lord Aries will not be held responsible for you receiving a TOS notice should one be issued as result of his post in this or any thread.
 
Thanks... the NHC and NWS were no help... it was all general info. The surge has me worried but not much.. the foundation sits at 12' above at the lowest point and my floor is another 10 so unless we see a 22' surge flooding is out(I hope).

I am more conserned with window being blown out and taking in water that way. Do you all think 110 window film will hold against this storm??


:E: :E: :E: I was going to fly down last week for the hell of it :E: :E: :E:

Just keep me posted guys thanks...
 
bonedog said:
Guys as some of you know I have a beach house in Venice... I sit about 12feet above the water. What warnings or evac orders are being issued?? Being I am in Jersey I am really worried here.. seems all my neighbors are away and I need to know what up. If I need to I will hop a flight and secure my property.

I have hurricane film on all exterior windows but It is rated only to 110mph... think this will be enough??? I have delt with hurricanes before at the shore house in NJ but we never were hit with anything major... I think my luck has run out with Charlie and just want to cover my butt.

Any info would be greatly appreciated!!

Jude
Click to expand...

Jude,

You may be screwed :/

From the current path, Tampa Bay proper gets the eye. That puts Manatee/Sarasota counties in the worst side of things for storm surge. The winds, potentially Cat3 now, may be damaging as those film ratings aren't all that magical. Toss a tree limb in the equation and the 100mph wind rating goes away. Storm surge at the mouth of Tampa Bay is now estimated 10-15' depending on category of the storm and the tide at time of landfall.

I doubt you'll be able to hop a flight in time to get here to do anything.

I'd offer to run down and check on things, but I've got my place, my parents place, and now my relatives from NYC who came down and WERE staying on Longboat Key to attend to. Just got in from dealing with some things, haven't even begun my own prep yet.

Barrier islands have all been under an evac order thus far.

I can check in to it on the weekend for you, if it helps.
 
Rich, no mandatory evacs of the beaches here yet, so what you heard must pertain to areas south of here. Voluntary evacs never made much sense to me, but...

I am more conserned with window being blown out and taking in water that way. Do you all think 110 window film will hold against this storm??
Click to expand...

Bonedog, there just isn't much you can do about busted windows. If you have plywood, film or hurricane shutters, great. But like Doug said, throw in the debris and all bets are off.
 
Thanks everyone.... seems I may just get screwed on this one.

Take care of your families and properties. I have Hurricane and Flood Insurance so i am pretty sure that should cover damages.

I appreciate the offers to check on my place I will let you know. I may have a neighbor by my parents that might be able to run over. He lives in Englewood so he would be closer than most of you.

Everyone be safe and take care of your families... our homes and memories can be replaced loved ones can not!!
Jude
 
bonedog said:
Thanks everyone.... seems I may just get screwed on this one.

Take care of your families and properties. I have Hurricane and Flood Insurance so i am pretty sure that should cover damages.
Click to expand...

Yea, don't forget that wonderful, additional, wind deductable :7: I wouldn't worry about it though Bone. As long as there isn't to much crap flying around, you should be ok. I will let you know if I see your condo go flying past Oviedo ;)
 
(y)

I was just thinking about it and you know what...

Ain't a damn thing I can do about it!! So tomarrow I am just parking myself at the local watering hole.. putting on the weather channel and MSN and having a Hurricane party!! At least that will work until it passes by. Then i get to deal with the insurance companies. :6:
 
Lord Aries said:
You know, I am so sick of these news casters hyping up storms.
Click to expand...

I hate to say it but, you know what, I'm with Squirt on this one. Yeah, it's a hurricane with some strong winds and rain, maybe a tornado here or there but c'mon, anybody see the storms we get during the summer?

Now, don't get me wrong, yeah it's serious, precautions should be made and it's safety first but Jeez Louize, can the newspeople maybe talk about something different for a change? I'm getting sick of this storm and it won't even be here for 30 more hours.

By the way, if I'm not mistaken I have the distinction of being the guy closest to the entire thing and if anybody will feel this thing at it's hardest point it will be those that get the northwest quadrant. Wish me luck!!! (y)

Joe
 
Joe Pollick said:
I hate to say it but, you know what, I'm with Squirt on this one. Yeah, it's a hurricane with some strong winds and rain, maybe a tornado here or there but c'mon, anybody see the storms we get during the summer?

Now, don't get me wrong, yeah it's serious, precautions should be made and it's safety first but Jeez Louize, can the newspeople maybe talk about something different for a change? I'm getting sick of this storm and it won't even be here for 30 more hours.

By the way, if I'm not mistaken I have the distinction of being the guy closest to the entire thing and if anybody will feel this thing at it's hardest point it will be those that get the northwest quadrant. Wish me luck!!! (y)

Joe
Click to expand...

The worst of the storm is always the southeast quadrant, Joe. Not to minimize what you're going to experience, but if it hits right square across the skyway, for example, Anna Maria/Terra Ceia and upper northwest Manatee County will get the worst.

It seems to continue to alter the track and projections slightly north each time it updates. Heck, 24 hours ago it was coming in between Charlotte Harbor & Ft. Myers. If this keeps up, it'll be coming in well north of Brooksville by landfall late tomorrow.
 
Just got this off the NHC reports....

000
WTNT73 KNHC 121501
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

LOCATION A B C D E

24.6N 83.1W 51 1 X X 52 NORFOLK VA X X X 16 16
28.0N 82.8W X 35 1 1 37 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 15 15
32.2N 81.2W X X 23 1 24 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 14 14
MWCG 193N 814W 99 X X X 99 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 11 11
MUCF 221N 805W 34 X X X 34 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 7 7
MUSN 216N 826W 74 X X X 74 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 5 5
MUHA 230N 824W 66 X X X 66 NANTUCKET MA X X X 4 4
MUAN 219N 850W 11 X X X 11 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X 3 X X 3 BOSTON MA X X X 4 4
MARATHON FL 31 2 X X 33 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2
MIAMI FL 9 9 X X 18 KEY WEST FL 45 X X X 45
W PALM BEACH FL 3 13 1 X 17 MARCO ISLAND FL 23 14 X X 37
FT PIERCE FL 1 19 2 X 22 FT MYERS FL 12 25 X X 37
COCOA BEACH FL X 21 4 X 25 VENICE FL 5 34 X X 39
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 18 11 X 29 TAMPA FL 1 34 1 X 36
JACKSONVILLE FL X 6 23 X 29 CEDAR KEY FL X 26 7 X 33
SAVANNAH GA X X 23 2 25 ST MARKS FL X 8 17 X 25
CHARLESTON SC X X 17 5 22 APALACHICOLA FL X 9 12 X 21
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 9 11 20 PANAMA CITY FL X 4 10 1 15
WILMINGTON NC X X 4 14 18 PENSACOLA FL X X 4 X 4
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 15 16 GULF 29N 85W X 16 7 X 23
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 14 14 GULF 29N 87W X 3 2 X 5

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$


This doesn't look good for the sun coast :C:
 
here are some visuals

from the NHC
UHAC_2.gif


from NOAA
121453W.gif
 

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Joe Pollick said:
I hate to say it but, you know what, I'm with Squirt on this one. Yeah, it's a hurricane with some strong winds and rain, maybe a tornado here or there but c'mon, anybody see the storms we get during the summer?

Now, don't get me wrong, yeah it's serious, precautions should be made and it's safety first but Jeez Louize, can the newspeople maybe talk about something different for a change? I'm getting sick of this storm and it won't even be here for 30 more hours.

By the way, if I'm not mistaken I have the distinction of being the guy closest to the entire thing and if anybody will feel this thing at it's hardest point it will be those that get the northwest quadrant. Wish me luck!!! (y)

Joe
Click to expand...

Lucifer just called me and he said it's friggin' cold where he is... >:D hahaha LoL
You and me agree on something? That's an amazing thing... j/k

Don't worry Joe my friend... It's gonna take more then 70mph winds to lift you off the ground... ;) >:D LoL j/k But, as for me... I will be hiding in my AV cause it only takes a good 5mph gust to get me flying!!! ;D
 
Looks like bonedog better enjoy his hurricane party - hell, looks like i need to have one too.....

FT MYERS FL 12 25 X X 37
COCOA BEACH FL X 21 4 X 25
VENICE FL 5 34 X X 39
TAMPA FL 1 34 1 X 36
CEDAR KEY FL X 26 7 X 33
 
SW I hear ya on that one...

but wait....


ok this is really getting BAD now..

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...INFORMATION FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND RADARS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES... 305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL .

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THEN ACCELERATE...ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY
SUGGEST STORM SURGES IN SOME AREAS EQUALING OR EXCEEDING THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 WHICH MADE LANDFALL IN
SARASOTA COUNTY...OR MORE LIKELY THE 1921 HURRICANE WHICH MADE
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY.

THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURGE SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE RUSHING TO
COMPLETION ANY LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

IN SHORT...A SURGE OF 10 OR MORE FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM JUST AFTER LANDFALL. FLOODING MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIME AND VALUE OF HIGH TIDES ON FRIDAY.


next update for tampa bay area @ 3pm

 
Joe Pollick said:
Lord Aries said:
You know, I am so sick of these news casters hyping up storms.
Click to expand...

I hate to say it but, you know what, I'm with Squirt on this one. Yeah, it's a hurricane with some strong winds and rain, maybe a tornado here or there but c'mon, anybody see the storms we get during the summer?

Now, don't get me wrong, yeah it's serious, precautions should be made and it's safety first but Jeez Louize, can the newspeople maybe talk about something different for a change? I'm getting sick of this storm and it won't even be here for 30 more hours.

By the way, if I'm not mistaken I have the distinction of being the guy closest to the entire thing and if anybody will feel this thing at it's hardest point it will be those that get the northwest quadrant. Wish me luck!!! (y)

Joe
Click to expand...

good luck Joe (y)

At least when they talk about this we get a break from "Kerry coverage" :rolleyes:

If you decide to escape, you can come stay at my house...as you well know, I have a nice couch you could crash on ;D
 
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